PLAYOFFS: Round 1... Buckle Up!

God damn I'm psyched. After a relatively lackluster regular season, the true season begins this Saturday. A 2 month spectacle of the best in the world doing what they do. And I'm so pumped for the playoffs I'm absolutely about to lose it. Let's take a peek at the match ups:

1-8s

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

A lot of people are talking a lot of yang about Golden State's chances. Yeah, Nellie built the Mavs, nobody knows 'em better, and yes the Warriors have beaten the Mavs up and down over the last 2 seasons. But let's not get too crazy. This is playoff time in Dallas. I'd be pretty shocked if Dallas doesn't dispense with the pleasantries and smash the Warriors in 4, maybe 5, games. That said, the Warriors can win games when they're shooting well. There's just no way to stop a 5 man line where literally all 5 guys on the court can shoot 3s... if they're on. Golden State needs to catch fire and show some defensive toughness, which is far easier said than done. I just don't see how Golden State expects to defend Dirk. Their best defender is probably JRich, maybe SteJax, and neither one of them is truly big enough to stop the German Destruction Machine. SteJax's deep playoff (and championship) experience will come clutch, 'cause other than a couple years for Baron and maybe 1 or 2 seasons for Harrington, nobody else on this team has ever played any type of postseason basketball.

Progs: Dallas takes it 4-1. Golden State's MVPs will be Richardson and Jackson. Dallas will get Dallas performances out of Dirk, Josh, Jason and Jerry, and put this to bed with relative ease. Still, major kudos to the Warriors for hanging in.

Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic

Murder. That's really the only word to describe what Detroit is going to do to Orlando. I would be very surprised if Orlando steals a game in this series. Here's why: Detroit is so superior to Orlando in every facet of the game, it's just not even amusing. For Orlando to win a game, they'll need Dwight Howard to play absolutely out of his mind, and not turn over the ball on every other play. Then they'll need Jam Nelson to wake up from his year long slumber. They'll need Arroyo and the rest of the bench to kick it up a notch, Grant Hill and Hedo to successfully coexist, and maybe most importantly; they'll need Darko to play like a man possessed. They need Darko to roll up all his anger and aggression toward Detroit, scrunch it up into a wee ball in his belly, and unleash it like a kamehameha all over the Palace. Another key for Orlando will be Trevor Ariza, who has been brilliant in limited action. I'd like to see him come out of his shell in the playoffs. As far as Detroit is concerned, they better win this quick, 'cause they'll see the winner of Chicago-Miami and then (most likely) Cleveland after, and they'll need to be as fresh as possible.

Progs: Detroit takes it 4-0. Expect Chauncey, Rip, Tay-tay and Sheed to show these young'ns what playoff basketball looks like. Expect Chris Webber to fade into irrelevance.

2-7s

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers

I'm expecting a way less exciting re-match of the 7 game thriller from last year. Think about it, the Lakers are just as underwhelming, and the Suns are the same dominant team they were last year... plus Amare. And make no mistake; Amare will romp in the post season. Who's gonna stop him? Lamar Odom? Ronny Turiaf? Don't even dream of saying Andrew Bynum. It's true, Kwame should be back for the playoffs, and that'll help, but I'm still looking at the Suns to end this pretty fast. Kobe's uberclutchiosity should be worth a game or two, but not enough to make it interesting like last year. With Marion locking down Odom, and Bell doing as good a job on Kobe as can be done, Luke Walton's gonna need something supernatural for the Lakes to have a shot. And Raja Bell's defense is (if possible) even better this time around. I do hate being proven wrong by Kobe though, so I'm gonna extend him more respect than he deserves, to cover my bases.

Progs: Phoenix takes it 4-2, but the 4 wins will be blowouts, and the 2 losses will be overtime squeaks on Kobe heroics.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards

There has never been a better time to be a Cavs fan. New Jersey's win over the Bulls on Tuesday has written the Cavs an engraved invitation to the Eastern Conference Finals. All they need to do is crush a Washington team that is a wispy shadow of itself, and then beat the winner of Jersey-Toronto (which should be a cake walk), to earn a date with the tuckered out winner of the Chicago-Miami-Detroit melee. Honestly, there's no reason on earth why the Cavs can't make it to the Finals in less than 15 games. This is it Cleveland fans. For you Wizznutz out there, I wish you guys could be full strength so we could see a rematch of last year's overtime laden battle royale. It's unfortunate, but we'll take 'em like we can get 'em. Wizards have no hope.

Progs: Cavs take it 4-0. Antawn Jamison will come as close as anyone ever to winning the MVP of the finals while going out in the first round. He's gonna play so ferociously they'll tell stories of it for years. I'm talking 45 pts, 15 rebs, 5 assists, 4 threes, 4 steals and a block per night... in an ultimately losing effort.

3-6s

San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets

I like this series as one of the best of the first round, but I'm still looking for San Antonio to win pretty decisively. Denver's been one of the best teams in the league in April. 'Melo and AI are meshing well, Camby and Nene are beasting on the block, Steve Blake is playing smart ball and Linas Kleiza is turning into a lights-out bench-weapon supreme. But I've been saying since day one that the Spurs have to be considered the favorite. If it weren't for Manu's last second foul-flub last year in game 7 against Dallas, I think the Spurs would have handily beaten Miami. I think this year justice will be served with a side of Southwestern dipping sauce. If Tony Parker and Manu do what they do and Tim Duncan doesn't get hit by an asteroid, the Spurs oughta lock it up.

Progs: Spurs take it 4-2. But with Nene's tough as nails athleticism and Camby's stout D, don't be surprised if Duncan looks tamer than usual.

Toronto Raptors vs. New Jersey Nets

This'll be another excellent series. Toronto looks like a team possessed, but I can't see them having a very easy time against Kidd, Carter and Jefferson, not to mention Nachbar doing his best impression of Kleiza. This could be a 7 game grind fest. The Nets are gonna find out that they miss Krstic even more than they thought, but Josh Boone and Miki Moore have been playing their asses off. They're gonna need to play the defensive series of their lives to bottle up Boshy. It'll pretty much all come down to Bosh. If he plays like he has all season, than I'd expect he'll also ramp it up for the playoffs. Of all those superstars from the '03 draft, 'Melo is the only one who hasn't shined in the post season. 'Bron, Wade, Hinrich and Howard have all been beasts in the playoffs, and I think Bosh's first trip will be a real test to see if he can truly hang with the elite from that class. I think he'll pass it... big time.

Progs: Toronto takes it 4-3. I'm looking for Kidd to be Kidd and Bosh to be Bosh. If Carter plays as well as he did last year in the playoffs, things could get even more interesting...

4-5s

Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets

Both of the 4-5 match ups in the playoffs feature 4 seeds without home court advantage. And I think it's gonna prove to be the difference. Houston looks as good as any team in the league, to me. With Yao and T-Mac healthy? Who can stop them? They might be my dark horse favorite to shock the world this year. This first round match will be a key litmus test. Utah is an excellent team, but they're slowing down. Houston's on fire, and that momentum should carry them through. What I love most about them is their defensive toughness. Forget about Yao and TMac on offense, how about Yao, Battier and Alston on D. If those three can neutralize Mehmet, Boozy and Deron Williams, Utah's gonna need miracles from AK. The key will be whether or not Mehmet can put up a fight against Yao. That said, he should also give Yao fits on the opposite end, peeling out to the Perimeter to jack up 3s. This one is gonna be a great series. If Houston wins decisively (4 or 5 games) I could see them going all the way. If they go 7 with Utah they'll be cooked for the second round when they have to play Dallas.

Progs: Houston takes it 4-2. Yao's gonna average 30 pts, 15 rebs, 3 blocks and the sexiest %s you've ever seen. Just see if he doesn't. In the end, I think Houston's gonna defend their home floor and ruin Sloan's year.

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

Miami is in trouble. They're as dangerous as anyone in the playoffs, but if Wade isn't back to 100% they're effed. In my opinion, right now, the Bulls are the best team in the East. They're gonna miss out on the Finals, because after beating Miami and Detroit, they'll be too spent to go 7 with Cleveland. But man are they good. Watching the Bulls play basketball right now is a pleasure. I even like them more than watching the Suns. They're not nearly as fast, but they're so fundamentally sound, they play exceptional defense, and every one of the first 8 or 9 guys in their rotation are brilliant decision makers. Even Tyrus Thomas is showing a knack for being in the right place at the right time. They rotate well, they're just smart basketball players... I can't say enough about them. But as per always you can't discount Wade and Shaqalacka together. There's truly no answer for those 2 guys when they're at 100%. Home court may decide this, and the Bulls have been lethal at home (31-10) this year. I like the Bulls too much, and I'm just not convinced Wade will be able to explode like he should.

Progs: Chicago takes it 4-2. If Wade is truly 100%, give the Heat an extra win, but the Bulls still prevail.

So that's it for the first round. Saturday has 4 games on TV, so buckle up chumps. The real season is about to start...