Monday, April 30, 2007
Bulls, Pistons, Cavs, Nets, Suns... Warriors?
The Bulls and Pistons successfully completed sweeps, humiliating their respective opponents. The Cavs should join that club by finishing their sweep of the Wizards tonight. Despite all the shit being talked all over the league about how great the Raptors are, they will likely be shown the door tomorrow night on their own home court. The Nets have pretty much wrapped up a very convincing argument that they are not only better than the Raps, but so much better it's not really even a contest. The Suns gave me a scare losing that one game to the Lakers, but as I expected, Kobe's heroics are really only good for 1, maybe 2 games in a series. Unless a miracle occurs, Suns should take it in 5.
Which leaves only one series. I certainly expected that I'd group that series in with the other slaughterhouses. But I expected to be talking about a Mavs sweep. I never thought in a million years I'd be writing about the Warriors with a 3-1 lead. I was at Oracle arena in Oakland last night to watch Baron Davis wash away years of bad memories of shoddy work ethic, poor conditioning, injury, disappointment, lack of leadership, bad breath and dandruff, with a legendary performance in a blemish-free Game 4 take down of the Mavericks.
It was a glory to behold.
The Warriors played defense. For real, no-shit, man-up, lock down defense. Dirk had a good game, but he looked tamed out there. Mikael Pietrus is a defensive whirlwind who can drain 3s. Matt Barnes may be the most energetic, level headed, fundamentally sound 6th man in the business. Biedrins is a spry 7 ft rebound machine, and he's faster than the dickens. Monta Ellis is a breath of fresh air in a sea of disappointing prep-to-pro air heads. Jason Richardson? How about one of the most versatile, athletic, high energy guards in the league. Al Harrington has been cold on the offensive end, but never out of energy. Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson are writing their names into playoff legend. They're hitting shots, creating shots, playing D, and hyping up the home crowd like you can't imagine.
When Baron hit a nearly half-court 3 pointer at the buzzer before half time there was a palpable feeling in Oakland. A foreign emotion for Bay Area basketball fans that's as tangible as the 20,000 "We Believe," towels being twirled by the Warriors faithful:
We can win this.
And not just one game, or one series. The Warriors are a threat. A scrappy, energetic threat to the NBA's Southwest power elite. Dallas is soiling their pants wondering what to do next. That's for sure. But you have to start wondering if Houston, San Antonio or Phoenix can have much more luck against this rowdy bunch from Oakland. Buckle up Bay Area fans. The Warriors mean business.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Game 1s
Toronto focused all their energy on Vinsanity, which worked, and got pecker-slapped by JKidd and RJeff. I still like Toronto to win this thing, but you have to wonder how good New Jersey would be with Nenad. Next year, with Nenad, Miki Moore developing into a solid backup and Josh Boone and Bostjan Nachbar coming on strong, the Nets could be intriguing again next year. If they dodge the injury bug, lookout; a .500 season could be in the offing. Phoenix handled their business like the pros they are, illustrating why Kobe is a punk who will never elevate the Lakers without a Shaq-type backing him up. Detroit looked chiseled against Orlando, but I would have liked to see a nastier, more self assured victory. Ditto for the Cavs. Game 2s should be hot. Cap'n, out.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
PLAYOFFS: Round 1... Buckle Up!
1-8s
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
A lot of people are talking a lot of yang about Golden State's chances. Yeah, Nellie built the Mavs, nobody knows 'em better, and yes the Warriors have beaten the Mavs up and down over the last 2 seasons. But let's not get too crazy. This is playoff time in Dallas. I'd be pretty shocked if Dallas doesn't dispense with the pleasantries and smash the Warriors in 4, maybe 5, games. That said, the Warriors can win games when they're shooting well. There's just no way to stop a 5 man line where literally all 5 guys on the court can shoot 3s... if they're on. Golden State needs to catch fire and show some defensive toughness, which is far easier said than done. I just don't see how Golden State expects to defend Dirk. Their best defender is probably JRich, maybe SteJax, and neither one of them is truly big enough to stop the German Destruction Machine. SteJax's deep playoff (and championship) experience will come clutch, 'cause other than a couple years for Baron and maybe 1 or 2 seasons for Harrington, nobody else on this team has ever played any type of postseason basketball.
Progs: Dallas takes it 4-1. Golden State's MVPs will be Richardson and Jackson. Dallas will get Dallas performances out of Dirk, Josh, Jason and Jerry, and put this to bed with relative ease. Still, major kudos to the Warriors for hanging in.
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
Murder. That's really the only word to describe what Detroit is going to do to Orlando. I would be very surprised if Orlando steals a game in this series. Here's why: Detroit is so superior to Orlando in every facet of the game, it's just not even amusing. For Orlando to win a game, they'll need Dwight Howard to play absolutely out of his mind, and not turn over the ball on every other play. Then they'll need Jam Nelson to wake up from his year long slumber. They'll need Arroyo and the rest of the bench to kick it up a notch, Grant Hill and Hedo to successfully coexist, and maybe most importantly; they'll need Darko to play like a man possessed. They need Darko to roll up all his anger and aggression toward Detroit, scrunch it up into a wee ball in his belly, and unleash it like a kamehameha all over the Palace. Another key for Orlando will be Trevor Ariza, who has been brilliant in limited action. I'd like to see him come out of his shell in the playoffs. As far as Detroit is concerned, they better win this quick, 'cause they'll see the winner of Chicago-Miami and then (most likely) Cleveland after, and they'll need to be as fresh as possible.
Progs: Detroit takes it 4-0. Expect Chauncey, Rip, Tay-tay and Sheed to show these young'ns what playoff basketball looks like. Expect Chris Webber to fade into irrelevance.
2-7s
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
I'm expecting a way less exciting re-match of the 7 game thriller from last year. Think about it, the Lakers are just as underwhelming, and the Suns are the same dominant team they were last year... plus Amare. And make no mistake; Amare will romp in the post season. Who's gonna stop him? Lamar Odom? Ronny Turiaf? Don't even dream of saying Andrew Bynum. It's true, Kwame should be back for the playoffs, and that'll help, but I'm still looking at the Suns to end this pretty fast. Kobe's uberclutchiosity should be worth a game or two, but not enough to make it interesting like last year. With Marion locking down Odom, and Bell doing as good a job on Kobe as can be done, Luke Walton's gonna need something supernatural for the Lakes to have a shot. And Raja Bell's defense is (if possible) even better this time around. I do hate being proven wrong by Kobe though, so I'm gonna extend him more respect than he deserves, to cover my bases.
Progs: Phoenix takes it 4-2, but the 4 wins will be blowouts, and the 2 losses will be overtime squeaks on Kobe heroics.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards
There has never been a better time to be a Cavs fan. New Jersey's win over the Bulls on Tuesday has written the Cavs an engraved invitation to the Eastern Conference Finals. All they need to do is crush a Washington team that is a wispy shadow of itself, and then beat the winner of Jersey-Toronto (which should be a cake walk), to earn a date with the tuckered out winner of the Chicago-Miami-Detroit melee. Honestly, there's no reason on earth why the Cavs can't make it to the Finals in less than 15 games. This is it Cleveland fans. For you Wizznutz out there, I wish you guys could be full strength so we could see a rematch of last year's overtime laden battle royale. It's unfortunate, but we'll take 'em like we can get 'em. Wizards have no hope.
Progs: Cavs take it 4-0. Antawn Jamison will come as close as anyone ever to winning the MVP of the finals while going out in the first round. He's gonna play so ferociously they'll tell stories of it for years. I'm talking 45 pts, 15 rebs, 5 assists, 4 threes, 4 steals and a block per night... in an ultimately losing effort.
3-6s
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
I like this series as one of the best of the first round, but I'm still looking for San Antonio to win pretty decisively. Denver's been one of the best teams in the league in April. 'Melo and AI are meshing well, Camby and Nene are beasting on the block, Steve Blake is playing smart ball and Linas Kleiza is turning into a lights-out bench-weapon supreme. But I've been saying since day one that the Spurs have to be considered the favorite. If it weren't for Manu's last second foul-flub last year in game 7 against Dallas, I think the Spurs would have handily beaten Miami. I think this year justice will be served with a side of Southwestern dipping sauce. If Tony Parker and Manu do what they do and Tim Duncan doesn't get hit by an asteroid, the Spurs oughta lock it up.
Progs: Spurs take it 4-2. But with Nene's tough as nails athleticism and Camby's stout D, don't be surprised if Duncan looks tamer than usual.
Toronto Raptors vs. New Jersey Nets
This'll be another excellent series. Toronto looks like a team possessed, but I can't see them having a very easy time against Kidd, Carter and Jefferson, not to mention Nachbar doing his best impression of Kleiza. This could be a 7 game grind fest. The Nets are gonna find out that they miss Krstic even more than they thought, but Josh Boone and Miki Moore have been playing their asses off. They're gonna need to play the defensive series of their lives to bottle up Boshy. It'll pretty much all come down to Bosh. If he plays like he has all season, than I'd expect he'll also ramp it up for the playoffs. Of all those superstars from the '03 draft, 'Melo is the only one who hasn't shined in the post season. 'Bron, Wade, Hinrich and Howard have all been beasts in the playoffs, and I think Bosh's first trip will be a real test to see if he can truly hang with the elite from that class. I think he'll pass it... big time.
Progs: Toronto takes it 4-3. I'm looking for Kidd to be Kidd and Bosh to be Bosh. If Carter plays as well as he did last year in the playoffs, things could get even more interesting...
4-5s
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Both of the 4-5 match ups in the playoffs feature 4 seeds without home court advantage. And I think it's gonna prove to be the difference. Houston looks as good as any team in the league, to me. With Yao and T-Mac healthy? Who can stop them? They might be my dark horse favorite to shock the world this year. This first round match will be a key litmus test. Utah is an excellent team, but they're slowing down. Houston's on fire, and that momentum should carry them through. What I love most about them is their defensive toughness. Forget about Yao and TMac on offense, how about Yao, Battier and Alston on D. If those three can neutralize Mehmet, Boozy and Deron Williams, Utah's gonna need miracles from AK. The key will be whether or not Mehmet can put up a fight against Yao. That said, he should also give Yao fits on the opposite end, peeling out to the Perimeter to jack up 3s. This one is gonna be a great series. If Houston wins decisively (4 or 5 games) I could see them going all the way. If they go 7 with Utah they'll be cooked for the second round when they have to play Dallas.
Progs: Houston takes it 4-2. Yao's gonna average 30 pts, 15 rebs, 3 blocks and the sexiest %s you've ever seen. Just see if he doesn't. In the end, I think Houston's gonna defend their home floor and ruin Sloan's year.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Miami is in trouble. They're as dangerous as anyone in the playoffs, but if Wade isn't back to 100% they're effed. In my opinion, right now, the Bulls are the best team in the East. They're gonna miss out on the Finals, because after beating Miami and Detroit, they'll be too spent to go 7 with Cleveland. But man are they good. Watching the Bulls play basketball right now is a pleasure. I even like them more than watching the Suns. They're not nearly as fast, but they're so fundamentally sound, they play exceptional defense, and every one of the first 8 or 9 guys in their rotation are brilliant decision makers. Even Tyrus Thomas is showing a knack for being in the right place at the right time. They rotate well, they're just smart basketball players... I can't say enough about them. But as per always you can't discount Wade and Shaqalacka together. There's truly no answer for those 2 guys when they're at 100%. Home court may decide this, and the Bulls have been lethal at home (31-10) this year. I like the Bulls too much, and I'm just not convinced Wade will be able to explode like he should.
Progs: Chicago takes it 4-2. If Wade is truly 100%, give the Heat an extra win, but the Bulls still prevail.
So that's it for the first round. Saturday has 4 games on TV, so buckle up chumps. The real season is about to start...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Year End Awards: Short Form
I'll do a more exhaustive version of this at the end of the playoffs, but for now let's see who's who in the NBA. Adrian Wojnarowski put this into a nice format today, so I'll do mine the same way.
Most Valuable Player
Steve Nash
Woj makes an interesting point when assessing Nash's career best season by saying Amare's return buoyed Steve's numbers. Well, I agree Amare's return made the Suns better. But Nash is shooting a career best FG% and 3PT% and I'm not sure how much that really has to do with Stoudy. Sure you can argue that Amare's tenacious play in the paint has freed up Nash to trigger 3s at will, but I think Nash's offensive output has more to do with the fact that while he's been long recognized as the best dimesman in the league, in reality he should also be recognized as the flat out best pure shooter in the game. As far as form and function go, Kevin Martin is the only guy in the league who sports a competitively frightening shooting ability. On top of the fact that Nash has put in a career best 11.6 assists and has noticeably improved his defense, I'm loathe to award him the honor for the last 2 years and not this, his best, year.
As for Dirk, he's obviously one of the beastliest dudes in the league, and is the best player on the best team. But saying that Amare's return takes from Nash's accomplishment, and not saying that Josh Howard's emergence does the same for Dirk is unfair. I would argue that Howard becoming a legit superstar and offensive threat has made life far easier for Nowitzki. It's definitely neck and neck, but I'm leaning toward Nash... again.
The rest of the guys in the discussion: LeBron is getting unfairly cut out. His "sub par" first half was still pretty stellar. His team has about as good a chance as any to win the East, and his post All Star Break performance has been arguably the best in the league. For his name to not even be discussed is criminal. Same goes for Tim Duncan. In fact, I think John Hollinger made an exceptional case for Tim Duncan as MVP... but not quite. Bringing up the rear would be Dwayne Wade. His team has been unimpressive, and he missed 2 months, but nobody's more valuable to their team than Dweeani (that's a phonetic spelling of how one would pronounce his name, not knowing that's it's the same as Dwayne).
An honorable mention goes out to Chris Bosh who had a stellar year and is clearly as important to his team as anybody. A dishonorable mention goes to
The Ballot: Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade
Honorable Mention: Chris Bosh
Dishonorable Mention: Kobe Bryant
Rookie of the Year
Brandon Roy
This may be the least interesting R.O.Y. race in history.
Tyrus Thomas, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jorge Garbajosa, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo have extremely intriguing futures. By the time the All Star break rolled around, it had become exceedingly clear that neither the Grizzlies nor the Celtics had anything to play for except Oden and Durant. So they both started giving their rookies chances to shine. And shine they did. Gay's turning into a frightening multi position offensive/defensive beast. I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up Shawn Marionesque numbers within the next few years. Same goes for the tenacious and scrappy Rajon Rondo, substituting JKidd's name for
Honorable mentions go to Craig Smith and Paul Millsap, who show mad heart and hustle, which you gotta love. Dishonorable mention goes to the guy I picked as a lock to be a huge disappointment: Adam Morrison. What can I say about Morrison that I haven't already screamed about college basketball? He sucks, it sucks, end of story.
The Ballot: Brandon Roy, Andrea Bargnani, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo, Tyrus Thomas.
Honorable Mentions: Lamarcus Aldridge, Jorge Garbajosa, Craig Smith, Paul Millsap, Randy Foye, Tarrence Kinsey
Dishonorable Mention: Adam Morrison
Defensive Player of the Year
Tim Duncan
Dude, are you kidding me? Without Timmy's rock solid D, the Spurs would be nowhere. He can do it all, and when everybody's been warning of decline, he just keeps up the same old same old. The Spurs are still my favorite to win it all, and he's the reason why. Nobody more terrifying in the playoffs, plus, the icing on the cake of any case for Duncan as D.P.Y. is the fact that he has the hardest to defend position on the planet; PF/C in the West. He could probably convince me he deserves this award if he was covering 3rd string point guards, but he's not. On a nightly basis he's covering Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Dirk, Yao, Pau, Boozer/Okur, Amare, Nene, Randolph and that's not even bringing the East into the discussion, which adds Bosh, Shaq, Jefferson, Howard, Sheed, Jamison and Jermaine O'Neal. Bottom line, he does it against the best, and nobody does it better. This is a tough category to quantify, so I won't even bother ranking the rest, I'll just list the defensive stalwarts who deserve recognition.
The Ballot: Tim Duncan, Shawn Marion, Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier, Marcus Camby
Honorable Mentions: Ben Wallace, Raja Bell, Kevin Garnett, Tayshaun Prince, Emeka Okafor, Josh Howard, Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith
Dishonorable Mentions: Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, Chris Webber
Most Improved Player
Al Jefferson
I know the popular choice here is Kevin Martin. And I'm not even suggesting that Martin isn't the better player. I like Martin a lot. In fact he's pretty much the best shooter in the league next to Steve Nash. But the thing is; I knew that last year. The only reason KMart didn't do the exact same thing last year, is that the offense was still running through Mike Bibby and Ron Artest primarily. Then the next two guys were Brad Miller and Bonzi Wells. Look at Martin's numbers from last year. They were almost exactly where they are this year in %s, and they reflected that he played about 10 minutes less per game. Which he did. I'm not saying Martin isn't awesome, he's just a guy who didn't get as many minutes, and when he did, his numbers inflated in a perfectly proportional way.
Biedrins has to be in the discussion, he's clearly got a huge future in this league. He might become one of the elite big men... but I doubt it. He's weak, and I don't buy his "tough face." I'd also nominate Sasha Pavlovic, who looks like a newer, sleeker, meaner version of himself. He's cutting to the hoop like a maniac, and almost providing LeBron the true running mate Larry Hughes was supposed to be.
Wojnorowski put Tyson Chandler on the ballot, which I can't agree with, 'cause I knew he could rebound and block shots like a beast. And he changed to a team with no other legit centers, so he got ample more space to showcase his beastliness. If you put him in, you have to put Josh Smith, but we all knew he could do what he's done too. I like this category for the guys you couldn't predict. Honorable mentions go to the 3 headed 6th man on the Golden State Warriors. Barnes and Azibuike were waiver fodder, and Pietrus in a rut, but Nelson let them break loose. Whichever one is in the game can take over. Also Eddy Curry, who is massively better, but still makes me want to vomit with his 900 TOs per game, lack of steals or blocks (or defense of any kind) and pitiful FT%. And to think, it may end up that the Knicks traded Durant/Oden for him.
Dishonorable mention to Larry Hughes who I wish I could say was a candidate here, but he continues to disappoint. Chump.
The Ballot: Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Andris Biedrins, Sasha Pavlovic
Honorable Mention: Eddy Curry, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, Kelenna Azabuike
Dishonorable Mention: Larry Hughes
6th Man of the Year
Leandro Barbosa
This one is a no brainer. Manu is not really a 6th man, and the difference between Barbosa and the next best candidate, Stackhouse, is not even close. This would only be a competitive category if Ben Gordon was still coming off the bench like he did in the first half of the season. Barbosa puts up (stellar) starter numbers in bench minutes. He's a blur, he can shoot from anywhere, and he's pretty much the heir to the throne in
The Ballot: Leandro Barbosa, Manu Ginobli, Jerry Stackhouse, Andres Nocioni, Sasha Pavlovic
Honorable Mention: Monta Ellis/Andris Biedrins/Mickael Pietrus/Matt Barnes/Kelenna Azibuike (whoever doesn't start and comes off the bench 1st).
Dishonorable Mention: LeBron James (that dude starts too damn well, he's the worst 6th man ever)
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Thursday...
Washington Wizards President of Basketball Operations Ernie Grunfeld announced today that guard Gilbert Arenas has sustained a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee, and the tear will be repaired by arthroscopic surgery. Arenas, who suffered the injury in the first quarter of Washington's game vs. Charlotte on April 4, is expected to be out for 2-3 months.
Dude, the Wizards can't catch a break. Without Caron they're a long shot in the playoffs. Without Butler or Arenas, I'm not even sure they can hang onto their playoff spot. I will say this; for all his obnoxious bluster, I honestly think Arenas is less important to the team's success than Caron.
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Holy Hell.
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Oh come on!
Hughes is close to a seven-figure bonus in his contract, but he'll need his teammates' help to get there. The deal Hughes signed in the summer of 2005 includes a $2 million payout if the Cavs reach 49 wins this season.
Does he get a bonus punch in the stomach if he shoots 25% from the field for the rest of the season?
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There are a very limited number of guys in the world that I respect named Tex. This is one of 'em. At least he didn't get passed over in favor of a WNBA coach and a couple of EuroLeague coaches... oh wait. Tex Winter on getting snubbed by the Hall of Fame voting committee:
"I think my family is a little more disappointed than I am,"
"I think that they think, 'Well, Tex Winter, he was just an assistant coach with the Chicago Bulls, with Phil and with the Lakers.' I coached basketball longer than anyone in history. There's a lot of things that they don't consider. Maybe they are going to wait until I'm dead." Los Angeles Times
Now there's a guy who doesn't sound bitter...
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There are two big games going on tonight. Cleveland and Miami are squaring off, with both of them jockeying for playoff position. With Washington basically packing it in and raising a white flag, Miami is rejuvenated. The Cavs are still trying to hold off the surging Bulls and maybe catch up to the stumbling Pistons. Meanwhile, across the country, Phoenix and San Antone will give us a 2nd round preview. I predict San Antonio will lose to the Suns tonight, but they will beat them in a best of 7 come playoff time. The Cavs will beat Miami, and should they meet in the playoffs, the Cavs'll do it again.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Dwight Howard
For some reason, people think he won't be ridiculous in the dunk competish. Personally I can't wait to see what he's got up his sleeve. If it's anything even half as awesome and innovative as Amare's dunks from 2 years ago, it'll be a show. I also wouldn't mind a shattered backboard.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Melvin Ely to the Spurs
Progs: Great steal for the Spurs in the short run. But don't be surprised when E Wills actually gets minutes in Charlotte (for some reason teams always think this guy is good...). And then definitely don't be surprised when Charlotte parlays the 2nd round pick into the next Gerald Wallace... In short, solid move for both teams.