Rookie Barrage and Mirage: Vol.1

2003 was obviously the best draft class since the one that featured Jordan, Barkley, Stockton and Olajuwon. LeBron, 'Melo, DWayde, Bosh, and Josh Howard are all bona fide A-list stars now. The next tier is stacked with talent as well; Hinrich, David West, Luke Ridnour, TJ Ford, Kaman, Diaw and Barbosa. The C-List stars from that class are also nothing to scoff at; Mikael Pietrus, Darko, Zaza, Nick Collison, Marcus Banks, Sasha Pavlovic, Outlaw, Jason Kapono, Walton, Steve Blake, Willie Green, Korver, Bogans, and James Jones. Rounding out the pack are competent Kendrick Perkins, Brian Cook, Jarvis Hayes, Carlos Delfino and Michael Sweetney. And that's not to mention guys who signed after going un-drafted, which included Marquis Daniels, Matt Carroll, Udonis Haslem and Quinton Ross.
So basically out of one year we got 5 guys who were all stars within 4 years. 5 more who could be all stars next season. 18 starters. And a few guys who we've just scratched the surface of potential with (Barbosa, Darko, Collison, Pavlo and Pietrus). 4 Years later and this class is running the league. Compared with 2002(and don't understand me too fast, it was also an excellent draft class): Amare, Yao, Caron, Tayshaun and Boozer is a fantastic core. There's 4 all stars and a champion in there. The fall off is rather steep after that though; Nenad, Dunleavy, Jr., Gooden, Nene, Wilcox, Flip Murray, Freddie Jones, Nachbar, Ely, Salmons, Dixon, Barnes and Jared Jeffries. That's 4 all stars and 18 players worth even mentioning within 5 years. As opposed to 5 and 37 the next year.
So what about the 2006 class? It's a little early to tell, but the picture's getting clearer. First the guys who obviously can hang at the NBA level. They're not locks to be All Stars any time soon, but they'll all be playing prominent roles 4 or 5 years from now: Bargnani, Roy, Foye, Gay, Rondo, Aldridge, Thomas, Williams, Garbajosa, and Millsap. And I would expect Gay, Roy and Bargnani to be All Stars in the next two or three years. After them are a another string of actually decent players. This class was labeled a bust by many, but I disagree. Lowry, Farmar, Morrison, Reddick, Shelden Williams, Gibson, Carney, Sefolosha, Brewer, Miles, Balkman, Rodriguez, Armstrong, Simmons, Novak, Powe and Adams have all shown flashes. There were several immediate busts, Brown, Brown, Sene, O'Bryant, and more happening every day. But still this class has a wide field of guys getting a chance to shine.
Essentially the draft ebbs and flows with the crop of college talent. Though next year's draft potentially sports two guys everyone agrees will be immediate successes, Oden and Durant, the fall off after that is pretty steep. Some even think Marc Gasol, Pau's chump ass baby brother, could go 1st round. So stars do not, necessarily, a great draft class make. One could even argue this class will be a bigger success than that 2002 class, in that there are way more guys potentially to still be big contributors, 4 or 5 years down the line.

More on this analysis to come...